April 26, 2026
This latest wave of research captures the first snapshot of public opinion following the Liberals’ by-election victories, which have now secured them a majority in the House of Commons. The results suggest that rather than triggering any backlash, the shift to majority government has coincided with a modest strengthening of the Liberals’ position.
If anything, the story is one of consolidation and quiet endorsement. The Liberals have widened their vote lead, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s personal numbers remain strong, and there is no evidence of a negative public reaction to the party holding a majority. Instead, opinion appears to have settled into a pattern that continues to favour the governing party.
Taken together, the data point to a political environment that is not only stable, but increasingly tilted in the Liberals’ direction.
Direction of the Country: Steady at Home, Deeply Pessimistic Abroad
Public opinion about the direction of the country remains closely divided, but stable.
Today, 41% of Canadians say the country is headed in the right direction, while 43% say it is on the wrong track. This represents little meaningful change from earlier in April and suggests that the shift to majority government has not disrupted underlying sentiment.
Views of the world remain overwhelmingly negative. Just 11% believe the world is headed in the right direction, compared with 77% who say it is on the wrong track. Perceptions of the United States are similarly pessimistic, with only 13% saying things are going well and 80% saying they are not.
The defining feature of public opinion persists: Canadians continue to see their own country as relatively stable in contrast to a world marked by uncertainty and volatility. The continuation of this “optimism gap” reinforces a broader environment that tends to benefit incumbents, particularly when they are seen as steady managers in uncertain times.
Direction of the Country – Abacus Data Apr 2026 W2
Canada Political Tracker · Apr 2026 W2
Direction of the Country
n=2,000 Canadians · April 16–21, 2026 · MoE ±2.2%
41%
Canada Right Direction
-2
Net (Right minus Wrong)
Overview
Subgroups
Methodology
Generally speaking, do you think things are headed in the right direction or are they off on the wrong track?
43% of Canadians say the country is on the wrong track, while 41% say it is headed in the right direction — a near-even split with a net of -2.
Canada
Right 41%
Unsure 16%
Wrong 43%
The World
The USA
Right Direction
Unsure
Wrong Track
Summary Table
| Geography | Right Direction | Wrong Track | Unsure | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 41% | 43% | 16% | -2 |
| The World | 11% | 77% | 12% | -66 |
| The USA | 13% | 80% | 7% | -67 |
% saying Canada is headed in the right direction — by subgroup
Atlantic Canada (46%) and Ontario (43%) are most optimistic. Alberta is least optimistic at 32%. Liberal 2025 voters are far more optimistic (61%) than Conservative voters (23%).
Region
Gender
Age
Household Income
Community Type
2025 Federal Vote
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 2,000 Canadians from April 16 to 21, 2026.
A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the PureSpectrum platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is plus or minus 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
All research conducted by Abacus Data is based on responses from real human participants recruited through verified, double opt-in panel partners. No synthetic, simulated, or AI-generated responses are used at any stage. All research complies with CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data.
Abacus Data · Canada Political Tracker · April 2026 W2 · n=2,000 · MoE ±2.2%
abacusdata.ca
Issue Agenda: Cost of Living Dominates, Structure Unchanged
The issue landscape remains familiar, with affordability continuing to dominate.
Two-thirds (66%) of Canadians cite the rising cost of living as a top issue, followed by the economy (41%) and healthcare (38%). Concerns about Donald Trump and his administration (34%) and housing affordability (32%) round out the next tier.
What stands out is not change, but consistency. The same set of issues continues to define the political agenda.
Top Issues – Abacus Data Apr 2026 W2
Canada Political Tracker · Apr 2026 W2
Top Priorities for the Federal Government
n=2,000 Canadians · April 16–21, 2026 · MoE ±2.2%
View wave:
April 22, 2026
January 14, 2026
Chart
Methodology
What are the 3 most important issues facing Canada today? Please select 3 issues. — April 22, 2026
The rising cost of living leads at 66%, up 6 points from January 2026. Donald Trump and his administration remains at 34% (−1). Change badges show movement vs January 2026.
Top Priorities — April 22, 2026
The rising cost of living
Donald Trump and his administration
Housing affordability and accessibility
Job security and unemployment
Climate change and the environment
The rise of artificial intelligence
The threat posed by China and Russia
Indigenous reconciliation
≥60% (top priority)
28–59%
<28%
▲ Up vs Jan
▼ Down vs Jan
Which of the following do you think should be the top priorities for the federal government right now? Please select up to three. — January 14, 2026
The rising cost of living led at 60% in January 2026. Job security (18%), Crime (16%), and Climate (15%) were higher than in April. Change badges show movement vs April 2026.
Top Priorities — January 14, 2026
The rising cost of living
Donald Trump and his administration
Housing affordability and accessibility
Job security and unemployment
Climate change and the environment
The threat posed by China and Russia
Indigenous reconciliation
Chinese election interference
≥60% (top priority)
28–59%
<28%
▲ Up vs Apr
▼ Down vs Apr
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 2,000 Canadians from April 16 to 21, 2026.
A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the PureSpectrum platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is plus or minus 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
All research conducted by Abacus Data is based on responses from real human participants recruited through verified, double opt-in panel partners. No synthetic, simulated, or AI-generated responses are used at any stage. All research complies with CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data.
Abacus Data · Canada Political Tracker · April 2026 W2 · n=2,000 · MoE ±2.2%
abacusdata.ca
Government Approval: Stable and Solidly Positive
Approval of the federal government remains in clearly positive territory.
Currently, 54% of Canadians approve of the job the Carney government is doing, compared with 29% who disapprove. These numbers are broadly unchanged and continue to reflect a durable base of support.
Carney Government Approval – Abacus Data Apr 2026 W2
Canada Political Tracker · Apr 2026 W2
Carney Government Approval
n=2,000 Canadians · April 16–21, 2026 · MoE ±2.2%
54%
Approve
NC vs Mar 2026
29%
Disapprove
-1 vs Mar 2026
Overview
Trend
Methodology
Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job the federal government led by Mark Carney is doing?
54% of Canadians approve of the Carney government’s job performance — unchanged from March 2026. Disapproval sits at 29%, down 1 point. Net approval: +25.
Approval Gauge
Approve 54%
Neither 17%
Disapprove 29%
Net Approval: +25
5-Point Breakdown
Full Breakdown Table
| Response | % | Net Group |
|---|---|---|
| Strongly approve | 19% | Approve 54% |
| Mostly approve | 35% | |
| Neither approve nor disapprove | 17% | Neither 17% |
| Mostly disapprove | 13% | Disapprove 29% |
| Strongly disapprove | 16% |
Approval Tracker — Feb 2025 to Apr 2026 (29 waves)
Approval has risen sharply from 27% in Feb 2025 to 54% in Apr 2026, while disapproval has fallen from 56% to 29%. The gap between approve and disapprove has shifted from -29 to +25.
Approve
Disapprove
All Waves Data Table
| Wave | Approve | Disapprove | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11-25 | 27% | 56% | -29 |
| Feb 25-25 | 28% | 56% | -28 |
| Mar 12-25 | 34% | 50% | -16 |
| Mar 20-25 | 39% | 25% | +14 |
| Mar 25-25 | 41% | 25% | +16 |
| Apr 8-25 | 49% | 24% | +25 |
| May 21-25 | 50% | 24% | +26 |
| Jun 5-25 | 53% | 23% | +30 |
| Jun 19-25 | 52% | 25% | +27 |
| Jul 2-25 | 52% | 25% | +27 |
| Jul 15-25 | 52% | 27% | +25 |
| Aug 7-25 | 50% | 27% | +23 |
| Aug 20-25 | 49% | 30% | +19 |
| Sep 2-25 | 48% | 30% | +18 |
| Sep 17-25 | 50% | 30% | +20 |
| Oct 1-25 | 46% | 31% | +15 |
| Oct 15-25 | 48% | 32% | +16 |
| Oct 29-25 | 47% | 34% | +13 |
| Nov 6-25 | 44% | 34% | +10 |
| Nov 27-25 | 48% | 32% | +16 |
| Dec 10-25 | 47% | 35% | +12 |
| Jan 14-26 | 47% | 34% | +13 |
| Jan 27-26 | 54% | 31% | +23 |
| Feb 10-26 | 52% | 29% | +23 |
| Feb 24-26 | 52% | 30% | +22 |
| Mar 11-26 | 56% | 28% | +28 |
| Mar 25-26 | 54% | 30% | +24 |
| Apr 8-26 | 54% | 30% | +24 |
| Apr 22-26 | 54% | 29% | +25 |
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 2,000 Canadians from April 16 to 21, 2026.
A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the PureSpectrum platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is plus or minus 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
All research conducted by Abacus Data is based on responses from real human participants recruited through verified, double opt-in panel partners. No synthetic, simulated, or AI-generated responses are used at any stage. All research complies with CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data.
Abacus Data · Canada Political Tracker · April 2026 W2 · n=2,000 · MoE ±2.2%
abacusdata.ca
Importantly, the transition to a majority government has not produced any measurable decline in approval. Combined with our previous release showing that nearly half of Canadians are satisfied with a Liberal majority, almost double the proportion who are dissatisfied, this suggests the public is, at minimum, comfortable with the outcome.
Rather than triggering concern about concentrated power, the majority appears to have reinforced perceptions of stability and direction.
Leader Impressions: Carney’s Advantage Endures
Prime Minister Mark Carney continues to enjoy strong personal ratings.
He holds a net favourability of +22, with 51% of Canadians expressing a positive impression and 29% a negative one. These numbers are consistent with recent waves and indicate that his personal brand remains a central pillar of Liberal strength.
By contrast, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre remains in negative territory, with a net impression of -7 (37% positive, 44% negative) while NDP leader Avi Lewis is further behind at -11.
Leader Impressions – Abacus Data Apr 2026 W2
Canada Political Tracker · Apr 2026 W2
Party Leader Impressions
n=2,000 Canadians · April 16–21, 2026 · MoE ±2.2%
Current Wave
Net Trend
Methodology
Do you have a positive or negative impression of each leader? — April 22, 2026
Carney leads with Net +22 (51% positive / 29% negative). Poilievre is at Net −7 (37% positive / 44% negative). Avi Lewis is at Net −11 (15% positive / 26% negative), with 24% saying they don’t know enough to say.
Leader Impressions — April 22, 2026
Net impression (% Positive minus % Negative) tracked across all waves — Jan 2025 to Apr 2026
Carney’s net favourability has held above +20 since January 2026, reaching a high of +25 in March 2026. Poilievre’s net has ranged from −13 to +2, ending at −7 in the latest wave.
Net Favourability Trend
Full Data Table
| Wave | Poilievre Net | Carney Net |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 27-25 | 0 | +13 |
| Feb 11-25 | -4 | +15 |
| Feb 25-25 | 0 | +10 |
| Mar 20-25 | -7 | +12 |
| Mar 25-25 | -5 | +11 |
| Mar 27-25 | -8 | +11 |
| Apr 3-25 | -3 | +15 |
| Apr 8-25 | -6 | +19 |
| Apr 10-25 | -5 | +20 |
| Apr 15-25 | -3 | +13 |
| Apr 21-25 | -7 | +13 |
| Apr 27-25 | -3 | +12 |
| May 5-25 | +2 | +17 |
| May 21-25 | -2 | +20 |
| Jun 5-25 | -5 | +24 |
| Jun 19-25 | 0 | +19 |
| July 2-25 | -4 | +22 |
| July 15-25 | -4 | +21 |
| Aug 7-25 | +1 | +19 |
| Aug 20-25 | -2 | +17 |
| Sept 2-25 | -3 | +14 |
| Sept 17-25 | -1 | +18 |
| Oct 1-25 | -2 | +14 |
| Oct 15-25 | -3 | +15 |
| Oct 29-25 | -3 | +14 |
| Nov 6-25 | -7 | +12 |
| Nov 27-25 | -3 | +14 |
| Dec 10-25 | -5 | +10 |
| Jan 14-26 | -13 | +13 |
| Jan 16-26 | -13 | +23 |
| Jan 27-26 | -6 | +22 |
| Feb 24-26 | -7 | +20 |
| Mar 11-26 | -8 | +25 |
| Mar 25-26 | -4 | +21 |
| Apr 8-26 | -6 | +22 |
| Apr 22-26 | -7 | +22 |
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 2,000 Canadians from April 16 to 21, 2026.
A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the PureSpectrum platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is plus or minus 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
All research conducted by Abacus Data is based on responses from real human participants recruited through verified, double opt-in panel partners. No synthetic, simulated, or AI-generated responses are used at any stage. All research complies with CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data.
Abacus Data · Canada Political Tracker · April 2026 W2 · n=2,000 · MoE ±2.2%
abacusdata.ca
The gap between the two leaders remains a defining feature of the political landscape. Carney’s broader appeal continues to anchor the Liberal coalition, while Poilievre’s support remains more constrained.
Vote Intention: Liberal Lead Widens as Majority Takes Hold
If an election were held today, the Liberals would receive 45% of the vote among decided voters, compared with 36% for the Conservatives.
This represents a 9-point Liberal lead, up from 6 points earlier in April. The Conservatives have slipped two points, while the Liberals have edged up slightly.
The NDP remains at 8%, while the Bloc Québécois stands at 7%.
Among those certain to vote, the Liberal advantage grows further, with the party at 47% compared with 36% for the Conservatives.
Regionally, the Liberal coalition remains highly efficient: 48% in B.C., 50% in Ontario, 43% in Quebec and 58% in Atlantic Canada.
The Conservatives continue to dominate in Alberta (60%) and lead in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (47%), but these strengths are not sufficient to offset Liberal advantages elsewhere.
Demographically, the Liberals lead among older Canadians (54% among those 60+), are well ahead among Gen Z but trail slightly with Millennials. They hold a slight edge among both men and women.
Federal Vote Intention – Abacus Data Apr 2026 W2
Canada Political Tracker · Apr 2026 W2
Federal Vote Intention
n=2,000 Canadians · April 16–21, 2026 · MoE ±2.2%
Overall
Likely Voters
Region
Age
Gender
Education
Methodology
If an election was held today, which national political party would you vote for? — Undecided removed
Liberals lead at 45%, up 1 point from April 9. Conservatives are at 36%, down 2 points. NDP holds at 8%, Bloc at 7%, Green at 2%, PPC and Other at 1% each.
April 22, 2026 — All Canadians
Bloc Québécois
7%
▲ +1
Vote Share — April 22, 2026 (vs. April 9)
Bloc Québécois
7% ▲ +1
If an election was held today, which national political party would you vote for? — Those certain to vote, undecided removed
Among those certain to vote, the Liberal lead widens to 47% (+2 turnout boost), while Conservative support holds at 36%. NDP and Bloc each sit at 7%.
April 22, 2026 — Certain to Vote
Vote Share & Turnout Effect
| Party | Vote Share | Turnout Boost / Suppression |
|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 47% | +2 |
| Conservative | 36% | NC |
| NDP | 7% | -1 |
| Green | 1% | -1 |
| Bloc Québécois | 7% | NC |
| People’s | 1% | NC |
| Other | 1% | NC |
Federal vote intention by region — Undecided removed
Liberals lead in every region except Alberta (CPC 60%) and SK/MB (CPC 47%). The Liberal advantage is strongest in Atlantic Canada (58%) and Ontario (50%). Bloc support is concentrated in Quebec at 30%.
Vote Intention by Region
| Subgroup | Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | Bloc Québécois | People’s | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BC | 48% | 34% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 4% | 0% |
| AB | 26% | 60% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% |
| SK/MB | 40% | 47% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0% |
| ON | 50% | 38% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 1% |
| QC | 43% | 19% | 4% | 2% | 30% | 0% | 1% |
| ATL | 58% | 33% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Federal vote intention by age group — Undecided removed
Liberal support is highest among seniors 60+ (54%) and lowest among 30–44 year-olds (37%), where Conservatives lead at 43%. NDP support is strongest among 18–29 year-olds (15%).
Vote Intention by Age Group
| Subgroup | Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | Bloc Québécois | People’s | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18–29 | 42% | 28% | 15% | 5% | 6% | 2% | 1% |
| 30–44 | 37% | 43% | 9% | 2% | 7% | 1% | 1% |
| 45–59 | 44% | 39% | 8% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| 60+ | 54% | 32% | 3% | 1% | 8% | 2% | 0% |
Federal vote intention by gender — Undecided removed
Liberals lead among both men (44%) and women (47%). The Conservative advantage is slightly higher among men (37% vs. 34%). NDP support is notably higher among women (10% vs. 6%).
Vote Intention by Gender
| Subgroup | Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | Bloc Québécois | People’s | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Male | 44% | 37% | 6% | 2% | 9% | 2% | 1% |
| Female | 47% | 34% | 10% | 3% | 4% | 1% | 1% |
Federal vote intention by educational attainment — Undecided removed
University-educated Canadians back the Liberals most strongly at 52%, while Conservative support is highest among those with high school or less (42% LPC vs. 37% CPC). College-educated voters are most evenly split (41% LPC, 38% CPC).
Vote Intention by Education
| Subgroup | Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | Bloc Québécois | People’s | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HS or less | 42% | 37% | 5% | 4% | 9% | 2% | 1% |
| College/Trade | 41% | 38% | 10% | 2% | 7% | 1% | 1% |
| University+ | 52% | 32% | 9% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 1% |
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 2,000 Canadians from April 16 to 21, 2026.
A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the PureSpectrum platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is plus or minus 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
All research conducted by Abacus Data is based on responses from real human participants recruited through verified, double opt-in panel partners. No synthetic, simulated, or AI-generated responses are used at any stage. All research complies with CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data.
Abacus Data · Canada Political Tracker · April 2026 W2 · n=2,000 · MoE ±2.2%
abacusdata.ca
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto:
“The latest numbers suggest that the Liberals’ transition to a majority government has been absorbed by the public with little resistance and may even be reinforcing their advantage.
We see no evidence of a backlash. Approval remains stable, the Prime Minister’s personal ratings are strong, and the party has widened its lead in vote intention. Combined with earlier findings that Canadians are more satisfied than dissatisfied with a Liberal majority, the results point to a level of comfort with the current direction.
At the same time, the broader opinion environment remains remarkably steady. Canadians are still divided on the direction of the country, deeply pessimistic about the world, and focused on a familiar set of issues led by affordability.
For the Conservatives, the challenge remains structural. They continue to hold advantages on issues like immigration and crime, but those strengths are not translating into broader momentum. Meanwhile, the Liberals are benefiting from a wider coalition of support and a leader with consistently positive impressions.
What stands out most is how little disruption the move to majority government has caused in public opinion.
Instead of changing the trajectory, it appears to have reinforced it.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 2,000 Canadian adults from April 16 to 22, 2026. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the PureSpectrum platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source .
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is plus or minus 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to census data. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
All research conducted by Abacus Data is based on responses from real human participants recruited through verified, double opt-in panel partners. No synthetic, simulated, or AI-generated responses are used at any stage. All research complies with CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data.
About Abacus Data
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